According to the theory put forward by Michael Garrett of the University of Manchester, artificial intelligence may have brought about the end of civilizations, which could explain why we have not encountered aliens.
As artificial intelligence evolves and moves towards artificial superintelligence, a critical question arises: Could this progress be an obstacle to the survival of civilization rather than a triumph of technology? According to Garrett’s theory, artificial intelligence could be the “great filter” of the universe.
To date, we have found no evidence of aliens, and the Fermi Paradox addresses this cosmic silence. Why haven’t we made contact with extraterrestrial civilizations, despite the high probability of their existence? Garrett suggests that the answer may lie not in the low probability of life emerging but in the critical evolutionary bottleneck that most civilizations have been unable to overcome.
Artificial intelligence, with its potential for a mind-boggling leap, could be one of the biggest obstacles to the interstellar journey of civilizations. Garrett argues that this rapid technological progress may coincide with a fragile stage in the growth of civilization, namely the transition from a single-planet to a multi-planet species.
“The lifespan of a technological civilization can be 100 years”
“The potential for something to go badly wrong is huge, which could lead to the collapse of both biological and artificial intelligence civilizations before they get a chance to become multi-planetary,” Garrett said. Imagine robots or machines with great power making decisions on their own, or artificial intelligence becoming too smart for us to control. On average, the lifespan of a civilization dealing with uncontrolled artificial intelligence may only be around 100 years.
Garrett predicts that the average lifespan of a technological civilization could be less than 100 years, from the beginning of interstellar communication capabilities in 1960 to the projected arrival of artificial superintelligence around 2040. This period is in stark contrast to the billions of years covered by the cosmic universe.
Considering the Drake Equation, which is used to estimate the number of intelligent civilizations, this prediction suggests a universe in which intelligent life is sparse. Even if civilizations manage to evolve, it can be difficult to pin down their early technological footprints.
“Artificial intelligence should be regulated”
Garrett concludes: “Humanity is at a pivotal point in its technological trajectory. Our actions can determine whether we become a permanent interstellar civilization or succumb to the challenges posed by our own creations.”
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